DAMPAK PERUBAHAN POLA CURAH HUJAN TERHADAP TANAMAN PANGAN LAHAN TADAH HUJAN DI JAWA BARAT

Ruminta Ruminta, T. Nurmala

Abstract


Climate changes and global warming had a great impacts on rainfall patterns. The rainfall patterns
changes can influence on rainfed land cropping system. In relation to that fact, study on change of rainfall pattern
and it’s impacts on rainfed land cropping system had been carried out at the West Java. The study based on
rainfall and crop production data that was analyzsed by Adaptive Neuro-Fazzy Inference System. The results
showed that the pattern of rainfall at West Java region in the last 30 years has changed and tend to decline. Long
rainy season becomes shorter and extreme rainfall (droughts or floods) has increase. Long rainy season changed
from 6-7 months to 4-6 months and led to a shorter period of growing season. Early planting changed and back
about 1-2 dasarian of early planting is usually done in 14th dasarian. In the area of West Java, production of rice
and corn trend to increase while soybean production tends to decline. Model production of food crops which were
analyzed by ANFIS very accurate and can be used for projecting the production of rice, corn, and soybeans.
Key words: climate change, rainfall pattern, rainfed land cropping system

 

ABSTRAK
Perubahan iklim dan pemanasan global sangat mempengaruhi perubahan pola curah hujan. Perubahan pola
curah hujan tersebut berdampak pada sistem pertanian tanaman pangan lahan tadah hujan. Sehubungan dengan hal
itu telah dilakukan penelitian mengenai perubahan pola curah hujan dan dampaknya terhadap sistem pertanian
tanaman pangan lahan tadah hujan di Jawa Barat. Penelitian menggunakan data curah hujan dan produksi tanaman
pangan yang dianalisis menggunakan model Adaptive Neuro-Fazzy Inference System. Hasil penelitian
menunjukan bahwa pola curah hujan di wilayah Jawa Barat pada 30 tahun terakhir mengalami perubahan dan
cenderung menurun. Lama musim hujan menjadi lebih pendek dan curah hujan ekstrim (kekeringan atau banjir)
semakin meningkat. Lama musim hujan berubah dari 6-7 bulan menjadi 4-6 bulan dan menyebabkan periode
masa tanam lebih pendek. Awal tanam mengalami perubahan dan mundur sekitar 1-2 dasarian dari awal tanam
sebelumnya yang biasa dilakukan pada dasarian ke 14. Di wilayah Jawa Barat, produksi tanaman padi dan jagung
cenderung meningkat sedangkan produksi tanaman kedelai cenderung menurun. Model produksi tanaman pangan
hasil analisis ANFIS sangat akurat dan dapat dipergunakan untuk memproyeksikan produksi padi, jagung, dan
kedelai.
Kata kunci : perubahan iklim, pola curah hujan, sistem tanaman lahan tadah hujan


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DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.20884/1.agrin.2016.20.2.323

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Agrin
Agriculture Research Journal
Faculty of Agriculture, Jenderal Soedirman University
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